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The Shakeout San Andreas Earthquake Scenario: Lessons Learned

BY LARRY COLLINS

On November 13, 2008, at 10 a.m. Pacific Standard Time, the Operation Golden Guardian 2008/Great Southern California ShakeOut simulated exercise kicked off.1 This multivenue response to a simulated catastrophic earthquake involved local, state, and federal government agencies, including first responder agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector. The hypothetical scenario was a 7.8-magnitude earthquake that devastated large sections of eight counties stretching from the Mexico border to central California. The simulation represented the worst disaster in U.S. history, directly affecting 20 million people who live and work in the simulated quake-impact area.2 More than 5.2 million residents and 5,000 emergency responders participated in the simulation, making it the largest earthquake exercise in U.S. history.


(1) Disruption of traffic routes, many simultaneous structure fires, ruptured water mains, and other factors will contribute to conflagrations in a major earthquake. (Photos by author.)
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The exercise was conducted in two phases. Phase I: “Response” involved the various county, city, and state emergency operations centers (CEOC) and department operations centers (DOC) and all levels of command simulating the effects, challenges, and tasks associated with a 7.8 earthquake, based on the ShakeOut earthquake scenario. Phase I also tested “Onsite Incident Management,” the capability to effectively direct and control the incident using the Incident Command System (ICS)/National Incident Management System (NIMS). Multiple situations simulating responses to building collapses, urban conflagrations, hazmat releases, dam failures, multicasualty situations, and even a series of 30-foot tsunamis striking Catalina Island, part of Los Angeles County [covered by the Avalon Fire Department and two Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD) stations] 26 miles off the mainland.


(2) Fire units conducting postquake damage surveys in the first minutes will be confronted by many simultaneous fires and other emergencies.
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Phase II: “Recovery” involved recovery discussions simulating conditions 30 to 180 days after the earthquake (again, based on the ShakeOut earthquake scenario). This exercise tested the capabilities of California Emergency Operations Center management, animal health emergency support, emergency public information and warning, mass care (sheltering, feeding, and related services), economic and community recovery, fatality management, communications, and critical resource logistics and distribution.

FIRE DEPARTMENT EXERCISES

Departments across Southern California conducted/participated in dozens of field exercises, including the following:


(3) As urban conflagrations spread, collapsed buildings with people trapped inside will become involved, forcing firefighters to make tough decisions.
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REAL-LIFE DISASTERS INTERRUPT GOLDEN GUARDIAN

On November 13, real-life disasters disrupted the simulated earthquake as wind-driven fire storms developed that night and burned 200 homes in the “Tea Fire” that struck the city of Montecito (south of Santa Barbara, on the coast) just hours after the first round of earthquake exercises was completed. Within hours, many southern California fire departments had dispatched dozens of engine company strike teams, water-dropping helicopters, and other resources to the Montecito area fire. Two additional wildfires, on November 14 and 15, quickly spread to the urban interface. Before the weekend was over, more than 800 additional homes had burned in the San Fernando Valley and the tri-border between Riverside, Orange, and Los Angeles counties. Thousands of firefighters and nearly all available resources were committed to these fires; yet, a thousand homes were lost.

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During these actual conflagrations that struck the night of the exercise, firefighters faced the challenges of loss of water pressure in fire hydrants and the need to quickly find and use alternate sources of firefighting water; fire spreading from structure to structure under firestorm conditions; the need to employ aerial fire attack in residential areas within cities; the scarcity of firefighting resources, which were needed in multiple simultaneous locations; the shortage of personnel, necessitating massive amounts of mutual aid; and the potential for life loss from the fires.

On the other hand, these actual fires also demonstrated the robust capabilities of the southern California fire service. Under some of the most extreme fire weather conditions with tens of thousands of structures threatened by wind-driven fires, firefighters saved buildings and neighborhoods using aggressive, time-tested wildland and conflagration firefighting strategies and equipment.


(5) Urban search and rescue operations will continue around the clock for weeks after a catastrophic San Andreas earthquake.
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One of the projected consequences of a 7.8 San Andreas Fault quake is that many simultaneous fires (more than 1,600) will grow into dozens of urban conflagrations, overtaxing fire departments that will also be dealing with thousands of building collapses with many trapped victims, hazardous materials releases, and more than 100,000 injuries.3 Such a situation will require expanded strategies that include interstate mutual aid. Los Angeles fire chiefs and other fire service leaders are reviewing such strategies.

LESSONS LEARNED

All exercises are somewhat hollow unless there is a valid After Action Report (AAR) or some other means of capturing important lessons learned by the participants, controllers, and observers. Equally important is translating the lessons learned into actions that will improve the systems, equipment, training, response mechanisms, policies, and other capabilities. As of this writing, exercise participants, including the counties involved, California’s Office of Emergency Service and its Office of Homeland Security, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), some of the nongovernmental organizations, and the involved cities, fire departments, law enforcement agencies, and school districts are preparing AARs. The various “operational areas” (regionally consolidated groups of response agencies collaborating for the same goal) in Southern California are cooperatively consolidating some of these reports.

Among the fire service-related lessons learned during the combined Golden Guardian 2008/ShakeOut exercises are the following:

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The ShakeOut earthquake scenario and the Golden Guardian exercise tested and improved our ability to manage catastrophic-level disasters. The scenario painted a dark portrait of the most likely consequences of a magnitude 7.8 quake on the southern section of the San Andreas Fault and the challenges that will confront responders. You can follow the progress of all these continuing efforts at www.shakeout.org and www.daretoprepare.org/.

Endnotes

1. A detailed explanation of how this simulated exercise was planned and its intended goals are presented in “The ShakeOut San Andreas Earthquake Scenario: Preparing for a Catastrophe,” Larry Collins, Fire Engineering, September 2008, 75-83.

2. The exercise was based on the study The ShakeOut Scenario, which describes the most likely consequences of a 7.8-magnitude earthquake in the southern section of the San Andreas Fault. The entire report can be downloaded at www.usgs.gov/. (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/).

The exercise was also based on the seminal study A Note on Fire Following Earthquake for the Southern San Andreas Fault M 7.8 Earthquake (SoSAFE) Scenario by Charles Skawthorne, S.E., SPA, Risk LLC, Berkeley, CA 94708, for the United States Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, February 14, 2007.

3. These projections are based on Charles Skawthorne’s A Note on Fire Following Earthquake for the Southern San Andreas Fault M 7.8 Earthquake (SoSAFE) Scenario.

4. The two U.S.-based international US&R task forces are from the Fairfax County (VA) Fire and Rescue Department and the Los Angeles County (CA) Fire Department. They work under the auspices of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA).

LARRY COLLINS is a 29-year member of the County of Los Angeles Fire Department (LACoFD); a captain; and a USAR specialist and paramedic assigned to US&R Task Force 103, which responds to technical rescues and multialarm fires. He is a search team manager for LACoFD’s FEMA/OFDA US&R Task Force for domestic and international response and serves on the FEMA US&R Incident Support Team, with deployments to the Oklahoma City bombing; the 9-11 Pentagon collapse; Hurricanes Frances, Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Gustav, and Ike; and several National Security events. He has had published many articles in Fire Engineering since 1989 and is the author of the< Technical Rescue Operations textbook series (Fire Engineering: Vol. I, 2004, Vol. II, 2005) and the Rescue chapter of Fire Engineering’s Handbook for Firefighter I and II


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