COMMUNITY RISK AND CAPABILITIES ANALYSES
FIRE PROTECTION
To Know Where you are going, you have to know where you are,
THERE is an old saying, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” Does that apply to your fire department? Has your department determined how to meet the challenges of the future?
Demands for increased service press upon most fire protection agencies. Management must develop prudent, viable plans to supply the resources that meet the demands.
Timely, dynamic fire protection planning provides the basis for organized management of current and future demands. The end result is a fire protection system that is more responsive to and more closely satisfies the needs of the public.
Let’s discuss a method of identifying demands, determining capabilities, and developing solutions.
To increase the services provided by its fire department, a community, with the guidance of the department, must:
- identify the nature and extent of the demands it faces;
- determine and establish the levels of service standards desired;
- identify the most efficient and effective uses of available resources, both public and private, to provide established service levels;
- establish and implement a management and evaluation system that will provide for the attainment and revision of determined service levels within a defined time frame.
THE FIRE PROTECTION SYSTEM
Too often, the fire protection system is viewed only in terms of fire suppression. Suppression is but one spoke in the wheel. The most effective fire protection system integrates all of the elements involved in maintaining at acceptable levels, as desired or can be afforded by the community, the loss-oflife, loss-of-propcrty, and community consequences of a multitude of emergencies. The fire suppression system alone cannot provide the service demanded by most communities.
The interdependence between public and private agencies and the degree to which citizens themselves become involved have a significant impact upon the quality of a community’s fire protection system. The primary elements that shape the fire protection system include the federal, state, and local governments, fire department, police department, water department, planning department, building department, public works, utilities, schools, insurance companies, media, and citizens.
RISK & CAPABILITIES ANALYSES
RISK AND CAPABILITIES ANALYSES
Providing an acceptable level of fire protection at a reasonable cost via public and private action-the goal of the fire protection system-can be accomplished by conducting risk and capabilities analyses. Such analyses will identify the areas of imbalance between risks to the community and its capabilities to deal effectively with those risks, and secondly, will determine the issues that must be addressed in order to narrow the gap. Before deciding on solutions, consider the big picture and the full range of needs compared to the availability of resources. Once you have an understanding of the problems, you can begin to focus on the solutions.
RISK ANALYSIS
The first major step in conducting a risk analysis is to divide the jurisdiction into fire management areas. These divisions may be based on any parameters the jurisdiction finds appropriate. Some of the most common are grid systems, geographic boundaries, response areas, land use, population density, construction, and previous fire experience.
Identify the major target hazards, the fire flow needed, the life risk involved, and the community consequences of a major incident.
In most cases, three to five target hazards per fire management area are enough to gain an understanding of the degree and type of risk that exists. Examples of target hazards are industrial properties, institutional and large residential complexes, and commercial occupancies such as warehouses and factory buildings.
When considering each property at risk, a comparison must be made between the required fire flow and the available fire flow. With the required fire flow established, you can study the resource needs in terms of personnel, water supply, and apparatus available, before the incident. When a required volume of water is known, one can calculate rather simply the number of personnel required to operate the necessary number of lines of the proper size.
Required fire flows are based on total involvement of the target hazard upon arrival of the fire suppression forces. The actual amount of extinguishing agent required is directly proportional to the size of the area involved, which, in turn, is directly proportional to the time of uninterrupted involvement. Therefore, the quicker that fire involvement is interrupted, the less fire flow is needed for extinguishment.
Assessment of life risk must take into account several factors. The major concerns involve the number, location, condition, and behavior patterns of occupants, and means of egress available. Very young or elderly occupants indicate a higher life risk than other age groups. Those with physical or mental impairments present an even greater risk. Densely populated occupancies place more people in danger, thereby increasing the total life risk.
Finally, an analysis of community consequences is conducted. Your imagination and projection ability will play a major role in compiling this data. Consideration should be given to the tangible and intangible impacts-not only the real dollar costs of the structure, its replacement, and the business operating in that stucture, but also the costs to other businesses that may be affected. Your analysis should include immediate as well as future community impacts. The short-term tax and salary loss should be added to the long-term effects such as unemployment, sociological costs, the impact on family future, et cetera. In other words, the impacts of a major incident have a far-reaching multiplier that should be considered in risk analysis.
The fire loss values should be compared to the property-at-risk values. Fire loss figures, by themselves, do not produce any viable measurement of responsibility and probable effectiveness. However, when they are compared to property at risk over a significant period of time, they will provide an accurate reflection. Whenever your data consistently shows fire loss at over five percent of the property at risk, a reevaluation of operations is in order. These figures may produce an increase, decrease, or a fluctuation in percentage of loss to risk.
Some of the issues that must be addressed in risk analysis are:
- What Is Available to Burn?-Determine what is available to burn in your jurisdiction. Categorize the various occupancies: residential, light mercantile, heavy commercial, industrial, institutional. By identifying the occupancies, you will have a much clearer picture of potential fire problems.
- Types of Alarms-Compare the overall trend in emergency activity for your jurisdiction for at least a ten-year period. While fire may still be our main concern, you must realize that the fire service is also extremely involved in many other emergency services. Your statistics will enable you to pinpoint which service demands have increased or decreased, and in which section of the jurisdiction. Analysis of those figures will provide vital information to calculate your service demands. Appro priate actions can then be taken to effect necessary changes.
- Responses to Alarms-Data must be compiled to determine the number of responses from each station and by each piece of apparatus over at least a ten-year period. These figures will allow you to monitor more closely the service demands for specific areas, and to determine increases or decreases in appara tus activity. Information gathered will provide a foundation on which to base incident strategies.
RISK & CAPABILITIES ANALYSES
- What Is Burning?-To gain an accurate understanding of what is burning, you must compare the different types of fires responded to each year. Identify the type of material first ignited, the source of heat causing ignition, the form of heat causing ignition, and the act or omission causing ignition. Through this information, you may identify some trends that you can specifically deal with in your incident strategies.
- Fire Deaths and injuries in Your Jurisdiction – Evaluate these for at least a ten-year period so as to uncover a trend, if any. Analyze your statistics with state and national figures, always using consistent measuring sticks-deaths and injuries measured on a “per 100,000 population” basis, for example.
- Demographics- Demographics will include statistics on such important information as daytime and nightime population, increases or decreases in population, age and ethnic makeup, and income of the area you protect, This, when combined with other data, will provide general characteristics of the community that could impact future planning.
Comparing the frequency of fires in the various fire management areas produces a more definite indication of where your resources are most likely to go. Once again, compare your statistics with those on the state and national levels, and be sure to use data from a ten-year period for comparisons.
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The data you have compiled will give you a composite picture of the hazards in terms of life, property, and community risks. You will be able to make accurate predictions of the total risk to the community and the service level that risk demands.
CAPABILITIES ANALYSIS
Just as fire needs three elements to start (fuel, heat, and oxygen), suppression capabilities are also based on three elements: personnel, extinguishing medium, and time. These elements comprise what is known as the “control triangle.” Without fixed protection, fire will continue to burn until well-trained, well-equipped personnel with an adequate supply of extinguishing medium are delivered to the fire scene in a timely manner.
The following are taken from Menlo Park (CA) Fire Protection District’s report, entitled “Fire Risk Analysis,” which may be helpful to departments that are conducting or considering conducting a study of risks and capabilities in their jurisdictions.
PERSONNEL AND ADMINISTRATION
- Establish objectives to reach organizational goals and renew annually.
- Evaluate administrative staffing annually. Provide sufficient personnel to reach departmental objectives.
- Review administrative staff assignments quarterly.
- Develop a computerized record-keeping system.
- Establish, maintain, and improve working relationships between fire district and all city and county departments that affect all normal and emergency operations and objectives.
- Provide continuing management training for staff personnel.
- Prepare and distribute, at regular intervals, communiques relating to personnel problems and recommended solutions.
- Maintain a close relationship with attorney of record and the fire district.
FIRE SUPPRESSION
- Maintain reflex time of six minutes to 95 percent of alarms received. Prepare and regularly update preplans for all major structures in the district.
- Review, ongoing apparatus and equipment innovations and fire attack concepts to develop maximum capability at minimum cost.
- Maintain and evaluate mutualand automatic-aid agreements.
- Continue establishment and maintenance of company performance levels using performance standards.
- Update mapping system biannually.
- Maintain career development program.
FIRE PREVENTION
- Establish fire prevention activities as the top priority of the district. Reassign department personnel in fire prevention bureau to fire suppression and fill with nonresponse personnel.
- Establish four administrative sections:
- Administration -fire marshall
- Fire Protection-fire protection engineer
- Public Education -fire inspector
- Fire Investigation -shift investigator (24 hours)
- Review inspection activities annually. Compare to occupancies needing attention.
- Provide training programs to hospital, institutional, and educational personnel.
- Provide public relation literature:
- Develop a hazardous-material(s) incident cost-recovery policy.
that encourages installation of fire suppression systems in commercial occupancies;
on the availability and use of warning devices; on the installation and use of security devices for windows and doors.
TRAINING
- Continuous training program for all operation managers,
- Assign a sufficient number of experienced personnel to the training function to be able to meet department goals for ongoing programs,
- Develop, maintain, and administer a needs-assessment program for training of individuals and companies.
- Develop a program that supports the fulfillment of the company officers’ first-line training functions.
- Develop teaching capabilities of all department officers.
- Develop programs to maintain emergency medical technician Level
- for all suppression personnel.
- Maintain a computerized fire-training management program for all personnel.
- Schedule monthly mutual-aid training drills with all affected.
- Provide cross-training for police and fire personnel to enhance coordination, cooperation, and effectiveness at emergency responses,
- Schedule/conduct quarterly driver training,
- Develop plans and timetables for NFPA 1500 standard compliance.
APPARATUS AND EQUIPMENT
- Continually review new and innovative equipment available for operations.
- Specifications shall have minimum maintenance time as a priority guideline.
- Provide replacement schedule for engine and truck apparatus after 15 years of service.
- Maintenance schedules should provide that replaced apparatus have a reserve life of five additional years service.
PHYSICAL FITNESS
- Establish medical protocol for all fire suppression personnel by a physician familiar with biomechanical requirements of the firefighter,
- Establish a program that assists the individual in developing and maintaining good physical condition.
- Establish a record-keeping program that will serve as an individual progress record, an evaluation for officer supervision, and an annual report for evaluation of total district fitness.
EMERGENCY COMMUNICATIONS
- Study feasibility of joint communications with neighboring jurisdictions.
- Review and access activities of communications division personnel that will assure adequate supervision, training, and workload.
- Establish a 10-year replacement schedule for all radio equipment.
The fire service is receiving an everincreasing number of rescue, emergency, and public service calls. The general public has been impressed, particularly through the television media, with an understanding that the organization to call in case of an emergency is the fire department. In response to this demand, you must have the capability to furnish the service expected by the public.
It is absolutely essential that a comprehensive capabilities analysis examine the elements that will assure the most effective and efficient utilization of personnel. After identifying the current time allocations, an evaluation must be conducted to determine how the time can be utilized more effectively, based directly on the service demands of the community and risk analysis.
TRAINING AND PHYSICAL CONDITIONING
During the past two decades, there have been considerable technological advancements in the fire service. New apparatus and equipment have increased control capabilities. Nevertheless, the single, most important component in fire suppression is still the firefighter. The capacity for the firefighter to function effectively and efficiently on the emergency scene is dependent upon training and physical condition.
In most professions, the opportunity to utilize developed skills is presented in day-to-day working assignments. This is not the case in the fire service. Actual firefighting, which demands quick, effective employment of the skills and knowledge of the fire personnel, is infrequent. Therefore, simulated conditions must be devised through drills and training situations to keep the firefighter at peak ability.
The training program must constantly reinforce the developed skills so that personnel function as a team even under stressful and difficult situations. A fire department should also provide specialized training such as emergency medical technician certification and recertification, hazardous-materials first responder certification, leadership and management training, and multicompany drills with neighboring communities. Sufficient time must be allocated to provide adequate time for training.
RISK & CAPABILITIES ANALYSES
Extreme physical and mental stresses are placed on the firefighter. Firefighting often requires that a resting body move to full acceleration at a moment’s notice. It demands instantaneous, precise decision making during the emergency. Such a demand requires physical and psychological conditioning, and time must be allocated to the pursuit of that goal.
STATION LOCATION ANALYSIS
Where your fire stations are situated has a direct bearing on your department’s capability to respond to an incident with adequate resources in the shortest amount of time.
Analyzing the number and locations of fire stations in a department requires data on the types of incidents that occur in the station’s first-alarm response area, where structural fires have occurred in that area, and response times to these fires. Street patterns, level of traffic flow, topography, population and occupancy density, and land use must also be considered.
Based on these factors, the following objectives will provide guidelines for the number and location of fire stations. Present locations and alternative sites should be evaluated on this criteria:
- Fire stations should be located so as to achieve maximum coverage of a community.
- Fire stations should be at locations that would enable apparatus to respond to calls for emergency services within an established response time.
- Fire stations should be located on or close to one or more thoroughfarestreets. Locations near intersections are desirable in terms of access, but traffic patterns must be considered to avoid impeding apparatus egress.
- Surrounding land uses should be considered in order that they not restrict response or be affected by firedepartment activities.
- Future land uses that would require emergency services should be considered.
There are very few standards regarding the optimum number and placement of fire stations in a community. The National Fire Protection Association recommends that a first-due engine company be located within two miles of residential areas, within one and onehalf miles of commercial areas, and within one mile of buildings that require a 5,000-gallon-per-minute fire flow. These are fairly broad standards. The fire history of your particular area, the amount of built-in fire protection, and the housing and population density, among other factors listed previously, affect how these standards might be implemented.
FIRE GROWTH VERSUS REFLEX TIME
Response times are also pertinent with regard to station location analysis. The location of fire stations is based on the theory that a rapid response is essential to protecting life and property, since delivering emergency services is largely a function of time.
FIRE GROWTH VERSUS REFLEX TIME
Through testing and experience it has been determined that the first five to ten minutes of a fire are of greatest concern. Because of the physical characteristics of fire, the temperature within a building rises extremely rapidly from the fire’s incipiency to a point when all of the combustible contents within a confined area will ignite in a flashover. The actual amount of time required for this condition to develop will vary depending on several factors, including the building construction characteristics, its occupancy types, and, certainly, its fire load.
If an extinguishing effort is initiated before the fire reaches the flashover ;point, the difficulty of control is generally greatly reduced. Therefore, one of the aspects that must be considered in establishing adequate fire protection is to develop the capability of interrupting structure fires prior to flashover. There ;are five critical periods that affect our ability to do that. The first two are only indirectly manageable, but the final three are directly manageable. They are as follows:
- the time that elapses between the inception of the emergency and detection;
- the amount of time required to report the alarm to the fire department, automatically or manually;
- the amount of time required to receive the alarm, determine the appropriate fire company assignments, and dispatch those companies to the emergency scene;
- the response time to the emergency scene;
- the time required to set up at the fire scene and commence application of an extinguishing agent.
The gathering and comparison of data provides a reference point for making decisions with a greater degree of confidence. The data compiled will give you an accurate evaluation of the capabilities of your jurisdiction. With this information and that which you compiled during your risk and demand analysis, you will be able to determine where imbalances exist. Once imbalances have been identified, alternatives and options can be considered and strategies developed for meeting the service demands required by the community.
UNPROTECTED RISK AND ACCEPTABLE RISK
Ideally, the amount of available capability should just balance the identified risk. This would indicate that the fire department’s forces are adequately staffed, trained, equipped, and capable of dealing with the predictable demands in the community. On the other hand, it may reveal that the community is overprotected, that is, has more capability than required to match the identified risks. If the fire department has more capability than it needs to do its job, resources are being wasted. However, analysis results are more likely to indicate that there are locations in the community where the risk exceeds the capabilities.
This introduces the concept of unprotected risk. Unprotected risk is the degree of imbalance that exists between the risk and the capability. If the resources available to respond to a particular location are inadequate to deal with the predicted situation, that location is considered an unprotected risk.
Acceptable risk is an expression of how much unprotected risk the community is willing to tolerate. The identification of unprotected risk leads us directly to the primary question: Is the community willing to pay higher taxes, accept stricter code provisions, or makeprivate investments to change the level of unprotected risk? The level of acceptable risk has implications in terms of life safety, environmental impact, property protection, and community consequences.
RISK & CAPABILITIES ANALYSES
The imbalance between risk and mitigation capability is affected by changes in capability or changes in risk. Areas of potential improvements exist on both sides of the model. Capability can be improved in a number of ways: more personnel, increased and/or enhanced training, improved strategy and tactics, new apparatus, fire station erections or relocations, automatic or mutual aid, improved communications, or increased water supply system capability. The possibilities are numerous.
Risk is affected by changing and effectively enforcing building and fire codes, by public education, by motivating property owners to make voluntary improvements, and by combatting arson.
METHODS FOR REDUCING RISK OR IMPROVING CAPABILITIES
There are many opportunities to intervene and reduce the risks identified in your district:
- Ignition can be positively influenced by the initiation, adoption, and enforcement of laws, building and fire codes, and ordinances.
- Detection can be positively influenced by codes requiring smoke detectors and public education programs. Smoke detectors have had a dramatic impact on shortening response times to fire emergencies. They have reduced the response time components of detection and notification by occupants who are equipped to take action (such as a fire brigade) and who are usually responsible for fire department notification.
- Alarm can be positively influenced by the use of automatic detection and alarm systems direct to the fire depart-
- ment. 911 emergency numbers have reduced the time it takes for citizens to call for assistance.
- Dispatch can be positively influenced by the use of computer-assisted dispatch systems and continual training of dispatch personnel, both on the systems and in the field.
- Fixed, automatic fire protection systems greatly reduce the amount of involvement prior to the arrival of suppression personnel.
- The number and location of stations will impact response times.
- Public fire education programs have increased the preparedness of adults and children to protect themselves and to rapidly call the fire department for assistance.
- The advent of low-cost residential sprinkler systems offers added immediate fire protection.
- Configuration of fire apparatus (enclosed cabs, air pack holders) has been improved so that arriving firefighters can reduce reflex time at the scene.
- Response time can be reduced by automatic control of traffic signals in the vicinity of fire stations and on major streets, allowing fire and other emergency apparatus to travel quickly and safely to service calls.
As you collect and analyze data for your own particular jurisdiction, a profile will become evident. Specific issues will evolve and plans will have to be developed to cope with them. In many cases, you will find that your issues are the same as those facing many other jurisdictions, or possibly those facing the nation as a whole.
Historically, the fire service is notorious for being reactive and using “crisis” management. The opportunity is here for you to be proactive. Don’t wait for the emergency and then react-identify probable future problems and develop a proactive plan. The plan you devise will put you on a much different and more specific “road” than that which you may end up on if you don’t have a plan. Know where you are so you can take an active approach to where you’re going.