We owe Abraham Wald a thank you…and he wasn’t even a firefighter. During World War II, the U.S. was dealing with tremendous losses of its bombers. To help support its bombers success, the U.S. had the Columbia University’s Statistical Research Group examine images of bullet-ridden aircraft that had returned from bombing runs and review where the damage had occurred. Since these bombers had survived, the Navy concluded that they should reinforce the armor to the bullet ridden areas to support bombers’ resiliency. Abraham Wald, who was a part of the Columbia Research team, concluded differently. He said that the Navy should reinforce areas where the aircraft was not hit, inferring that the planes that didn’t come home succumbed to the hits there, and should in turn be better protected.
- Solving the Unsolvable
- Decision Theory for the Fire Service
- Brain and Fire: Thinking Under Pressure
- A Philosophy of Science for the Fire Service
What Is Survivorship Bias?
Survivorship bias and retention in the fire service in comparison to a World War II bomber are two seemingly unrelated concepts, yet they share significant similarities. Survivorship bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when we focus on the successes only, while ignoring the data that lead to a failure. There are clear parallels between survivorship bias and retention, and how understanding these similarities can lead to improved practices and decision making in both contexts.
When we draw conclusions based on a select group of successful firefighters, we neglect the larger pool of data, including those who failed or didn’t get past probation, for example. In the context of the fire service, survivorship bias occurs when we only examine the individuals who have thrived and ignore those that did not. Survivorship bias can distort our understanding of success and failure, leading to incorrect decisions and expectations. To illustrate survivorship bias, consider the example of a fire academy.
If we were to analyze only the successful graduates of an academy, they might conclude that previous experience, physical abilities, specific behavior, or a stringent study habit is a way to ensure success. However, such a conclusion is flawed because it disregards the numerous individuals who failed. These recruits may have had similar attributes but did not find the same success, thus leaving academies with substantial retention losses. When we focus exclusively on why some individuals succeeded yet ignore the possibilities of why others failed, then the energy and efforts to right some wrongs may be misguided or completely overlooked. Being aware of survivorship bias would help the organization take a deeper look into the reasons why people left or didn’t succeed and look for ways to support those individuals’ specific issues. Perhaps there was a language barrier in the testing. Perhaps a particular company officer was the issue, or the recruitment methods that were used to attract the individual to the organization in the first place were inaccurate or, essentially, false advertising. Only with exploration comes discovery.
- Focus on Retention: Three Reasons Why Volunteer Firefighters Stay
- Recruitment + Training = Retention
- Retention in Paid-on-Call and Volunteer Fire Departments
- A Solution to Volunteer Recruitment and Retention: Training
Retention in the Fire Service
Retention in the fire service refers to the ability to keep all members (paid or volunteer) engaged and committed to the organization over an extended period. Fire departments play a crucial role in their communities and provide emergency response services that save lives and protect property; however, this is difficult to accomplish if the organization is unable to maintain a stable and committed workforce. This can be challenging due to various factors, including time commitments, training requirements, and the physical and emotional demands of the job.
In the volunteer fire service, retention is essential for ensuring effective emergency response, community safety, and the sustainability of the organization. High turnover rates can strain resources, hinder training and development efforts, and lead to a loss of institutional knowledge and experience. On the career side, competitive recruitment, intake, probation testing, and the like represent a huge financial investment and should require equal investment in retention. Therefore, understanding the factors that contribute to retention is vital. Although there is a greater turnover rate in the volunteer force of firefighting than on the paid or career side, this information shouldn’t be overlooked in career departments.
The Parallels
In both cases, there is a tendency to focus on a select group while ignoring others. This selective focus can lead to skewed perceptions and unrealistic expectations. In combination departments, it’s much more common to see the focus of retention time exclusively distributed to the volunteer workforce. This is a critical error as all members of an organization want to feel wanted and have their needs met. Focusing on just the volunteers in an organization can create internal resentment and create division among members. Finding a balance of an effective retention system that doesn’t negate the other group is crucial for both retention and department culture.
Overemphasis on Success: Survivorship bias elevates the importance of success stories, making them seem more attainable and prevalent than they might be. In the fire service, long-serving members are often celebrated and held up as role models due to length of service, not necessarily quality of service. This may create unrealistic expectations for incoming volunteers. Let’s continue to celebrate our higher performers or our “core” membership without compartmentalizing the others. Everyone deserves recognition.
Disregard for Failure or Attrition: Survivorship bias largely ignores the failures or nonsurvivors in a given dataset. Similarly, retention in the volunteer fire service can sometimes overlook the reasons for attrition or the challenges faced by those who leave the organization. This can hinder efforts to address the root causes of attrition and improve retention rates. When the phrase “we have low morale” starts to be spoken aloud, someone needs to listen.
Incomplete Understanding: Both survivorship bias and poor retention can result from an incomplete or skewed understanding of the factors at play. In the case of survivorship bias, this can lead to poor decision making based on faulty assumptions. It may also lead to difficulties in identifying and addressing retention issues effectively.
Survivorship Bias Retention Scenarios
Volunteer fire departments often celebrate and promote long-serving volunteers, highlighting their dedication and commitment. While recognizing and appreciating their efforts is important, if this is the extent of our focus, it can inadvertently create survivorship bias. New volunteers might perceive an unrealistic image of the organization, thinking that everyone stays for decades when in reality many volunteers leave within a few years.
When a firefighter leaves the fire service altogether, it’s crucial to understand the reasons behind their departure. These reasons can include time constraints, family commitments, job changes, or burnout. Ignoring the causes of attrition and concentrating solely on successes can lead to a distorted view of the firefighter’s experience and hinder efforts to improve retention.
The survivorship bias within fire departments can result in new recruits having unrealistic expectations about the nature of the work and the time commitment required. This can lead to disappointment and attrition when individuals realize that the demands of the role are greater than they initially anticipated. Equally, if expectations have not been delivered effectively or accountability is never enforced, confusion and frustration are certain to follow. In these cases, the lack of professionalism alone escorts even the best candidates to the revolving door.
Just as survivorship bias in investing can lead to poor financial decisions, the bias in fire service retention can result in ineffective policies and practices. Without a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and issues faced by members who leave, the organization may implement ineffective retention strategies.
Improving Retention
To combat survivorship bias, organizations should collect data on retention rates and the reasons for attrition. This information can help identify patterns and trends, allowing for evidence-based decision making. Stay interviews can be conducted in addition to exit interviews.
Attrition can be divided into two categories: positive attrition and negative attrition. Positive attrition is when a member has joined your organization for a particular purpose or timeline and has accomplished that mission. Think about career-minded individuals who join as volunteers and then achieve their dream of becoming career firefighters, or seasonal firefighters who complete their time commitment. Alternatively, a member could move beyond your department’s response area and not be negative attrition because it wasn’t due to any negative driving factors of the organization. All these examples are positive attrition losses.
Negative attrition is when members leave:
- And you don’t know why
- Because of an unresolved or unresolvable conflict with the organization
- Because of a member within the organization.
Providing prospective members with a clear understanding of the time commitment, responsibilities, and challenges associated with the role can help manage expectations and reduce attrition caused by unrealistic assumptions. Understanding the diverse needs and motivations can also enable organizations to provide tailored support and training. This can help address the factors that contribute to attrition and improve the overall culture of an organization. Organizations should actively seek feedback and use it to adapt their policies and practices. An ongoing commitment to making improvements based on fresh input can help reduce attrition and enhance retention.
Survivorship bias and retention, though seemingly unrelated, share common elements that stem from a selective focus on success, an overemphasis on achievements, and a disregard for failure or attrition. Understanding these parallels can help organizations better address the challenges associated with retaining their workforce and creating local experience depth. By collecting comprehensive data, setting realistic expectations, providing tailored support and training, and continuously adapting practices, fire departments can reduce attrition and create a more inclusive and supportive environment. Ultimately, recognizing and addressing survivorship bias can lead to more effective emergency response, enhanced community safety, and the long-term sustainability of your overall emergency preparedness.
Matt Aalto is a battalion chief for the Estacada (OR) Fire District and is their training officer and retention and recruitment coordinator. Matt holds a master’s degree in public administration, a bachelor’s in fire administration, and an associate in fire suppression. Matt is a subject matter expert for the National Volunteer Fire Council, International Association of Fire Chiefs, and others. He is a graduate of the National Fire Academy’s Managing Officer Program and is a current Executive Fire Officer Program student, and has presented at FDIC International.
