THE NUMBERS GAME
CAPITOL CONNECTION
The fire service’s secret political weapon is the great story firefighters have to tell: the story of infants saved and lost, billions of dollars in destruction, incredible bravery, burn victims, sirens, and firefighters rushing valiantly to the rescue. It is the story that inspired the movie Backdraft. And — to the frustration of those who espouse fire prevention — it is a story that glorifies suppression. It nevertheless is true and real, and the public never tires of hearing it. When used effectively, “the story” is a wonderfully effective political weapon. The problem is that the fire service doesn ’t know how to use it.
In my view, the fire service too often fails to back up the anecdotes with solid statistics. l)o you know how many nations possess chemical weapons? (Sixteen, according to the Defense Information Agency.) Do you know how many lepers still live in the Americas? (According to the World Health Organization, 320,000.) How about the number of people bitten by New Yorkers in 1985? (About 1,500, according to the New York City Department of Health.)
Every day here in Disneyland North —your nation’s capital—“special interests” use numbers to tell their stories. They use numbers to attract funding, pass or block regulation, and generally promote their causes. Everyone does it—from the National Rifle Association to the Frozen Pizza Manufacturers Association. Everyone, that is, except the fire service. And, folks, your tales of the big fire back in ’78 may be riveting, but don’t enter the golden gates of Washington if you ain’t got numbers.
Fortunately, the fire service does have numbers and—even more fortunately—those statistics are in the hands of the bright, hard-working members of the National Fire Information Council (NFIC), a nonprofit group funded by the U.S. Fire Administration and charged with keeping the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) alive and well. About two-thirds of the NFIC’s 70-plus members are number-crunchers from the 42 states that participate in NFIRS. The remaining 28 are from large city fire departments. Several times a year they meet to assess and improve the ways the fire service collects and analyzes the statistics that tell the story.
This complex work is made tougher by the fact that too many fire officials (and I spoke with many about this) find data collection “busy work” and an easy budget cut. But NFIC President Steve Morash, a data analyst with the Boston (MA) Fire Department, is more optimistic.
“The NFIRS is terrific,” Morash says. “Fires are being documented. The quality controls are increasingly good. Fire investigations are far more professional today than just 10 years ago, and chiefs aren’t arbitrarily deciding causes at the scene of fires.”
Morash rejects the notion of a deadtired firefighter faking his way through an NFIRS form at 3 a.m. “First of all,” Morash says with the confidence of someone who knows his facts, “most fires aren’t in the middle of the night. There is, however, more to be done.”
“The world changes,” Morash continues. “Firefighters are being exposed to new things all the time. Arc hazardous-materials incidents really a problem? How can we better coordinate our arson data with law enforcement records? We have a lot of work ahead of us.” He adds, without hesitation, “NFIC is realistic about the problems in NFIRS. We work closely and effectively with the Fire Administration, and together we’re constantly trying to improve the system. If it isn’t being changed, it isn’t being used.”
USING THE SYSTEM
My concern, and the whole point of this column, is that I don’t see fire data being used politically, at least not often or effectively enough.
Morash disagrees: “In Charlestown (a neighborhood of Boston), residents were concerned because we had only three pieces of apparatus protecting them. They wanted their ‘fair share.’ The fire department ran the numbers and at a public meeting proved that Charlestown was one of the best-protected communities in the state.
“The state of Texas uses data impressively in its public education program,” Morash adds. He says fire departments are using data to manage, to sell budgets, to improve community relations, and to push legislation.
Maybe they are, but I have sat through budget hearings at all levels of government and watched cops use crime statistics, public health officers with their infant mortality death rates, librarians with their book circulation figures, school superintendents with their test scores, and recreation officials with softball scores. That’s how they tell their stories. I just hope that Morash is right. I hope the fire service is using numbers to tell its story.
Here in Washington, I don’t see it. Not nearly enough. What I see are the same old tired statistics and metaphors, and sometimes 1 hear statistics I know are wrong. One fire service official recently told congressional staff members that 40 people died in arson fires in the United States in 1990. Hey, more than that died in the Happyland Social Club fire alone.
It is high time the fire service got into the numbers game in a big way. There shouldn’t be 42 states enrolled in NFIRS. There should be 50. Every single fire department in the United States should see statistics for what they are —a weapon in the budget wars, a megaphone in the battle for public attention, and an ax to wield in the state legislature and city council.
Among the national fire groups, the NFIC is one of the smallest and may well be the least visible. The lack of exposure and good publicity frustrates Morash and his NFIC colleagues. “We’re a lot more visible than we were a few years ago,” he says, “but I asked 10 fire service leaders about NFIC, and only two knew what I was talking about.”
Be patient about the publicity, Steve. Your job is to make the system work as well as it can. You said it yourself: “There’s still a lot to be done.”
It is, however, high time that the fire service recognize the importance of statistics and the role the NFIC plays. It’s time the fire service discovered statistics —its very own “secret political weapon” —and began using numbers effectively.
